Cherut
0xb12897c1a963e73a3e1682398c03fce18d57cf58
- Realised P&L
- $17.4k
- Volume
- $820.7k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.203 | $2.1k | −$654.91 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? · Yes | 0.757 | 0.845 | $1.8k | +$187.50 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · No | 0.017 | 0.005 | $16.43 | −$33.57 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? · Yes | 0.283 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.3k |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.369 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.62 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.6k |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.6kat 0.596US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$5.8kat 0.825Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$4.3kat 0.587Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$3.7kat 0.658Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$1.6kat 0.868Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:45 | Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.7877128396 | $1.1k |
| 11-01 18:45 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2000201643 | $1.1k |
| 11-01 14:34 | Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.7 | $490.00 |
| 11-01 14:33 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.20018 | $500.45 |
| 11-01 14:30 | Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? | BUY | 0.7 | $29.40 |
| 11-01 14:25 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.202 | $22.08 |
| 11-01 14:25 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.35 | $13.54 |
| 10-11 09:36 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.0167377183 | $50.00 |
| 10-11 09:34 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.147 | $20.58 |
| 10-11 09:33 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.022 | $22.00 |
| 08-29 18:04 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3099999855 | $12.00 |
| 08-23 09:29 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.526 | $718.49 |
| 08-23 09:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $235.29 |
| 08-23 09:29 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0197444928 | $2.9k |
| 08-23 09:29 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.49 | $518.00 |