KingKerf
0xb0eb0986d8165f4cdc430927c019f2c21b8b889a
- Realised P&L
- $-25.13
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.569 | $2.6k | +$39.89 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in September? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.049 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 28? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.170 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.105 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? · Yes | 0.549 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 16? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.41 |
| Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.03at 0.647Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$2.23at 0.310Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$2.02at 0.607Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
- +$1.51at 0.819Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$1.35at 0.949Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 04:14 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 28? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 03:49 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in September? | BUY | 0.071703863 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 02:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 28? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 16:26 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5596805199 | $2.5k |
| 06-27 18:33 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.29 | $8.41 |
| 06-24 01:55 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.50 |
| 06-22 20:43 | Will France win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.14 |
| 06-22 17:28 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.09 |
| 06-22 17:23 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.99 | $3.13 |
| 05-24 22:09 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6199999431 | $1.96 |
| 05-24 21:35 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.43 |
| 05-24 21:33 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.60 |
| 03-09 20:38 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2339999598 | $3.25 |
| 01-06 16:03 | Maduro mugshot released by January 16? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 01-06 16:01 | Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |