ym-hh-mjf
0xb0a9482dfe17c6ea452d9d5a1e45145e427e3a2b
- Realised P&L
- $635.39
- Volume
- $97.6k
- Markets traded
- 289
- Open portfolio
- $360.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded289
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · No | 0.977 | 1.000 | $308.85 | +$6.97 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.977 | 1.000 | $51.52 | +$1.16 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026? · No | 0.934 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.65at 0.917Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
- +$28.10at 0.909Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 16?
- +$26.97at 0.892Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 8?
- +$23.97at 0.952Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$23.17at 0.965Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 15:51 | Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $50.36 |
| 10-16 15:51 | Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769352751 | $301.87 |
| 10-16 15:42 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $39.83 |
| 10-16 15:42 | Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.38 |
| 10-16 15:42 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $198.80 |
| 10-15 14:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9898964374 | $95.58 |
| 10-15 14:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $238.71 |
| 10-14 12:25 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $157.40 |
| 10-13 14:55 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $193.28 |
| 10-13 14:50 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $632.68 |
| 10-12 14:24 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.9799831433 | $815.65 |
| 10-12 12:19 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12? | SELL | 0.999 | $390.61 |
| 10-12 06:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.9949296037 | $235.46 |
| 10-11 03:03 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on October 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $390.61 |
| 10-11 02:00 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 11? | SELL | 0.999 | $350.18 |