Lilysh
0xb08ab6517ffced44f16a22bb08f1bab96d93a7da
- Realised P&L
- $-163.84
- Volume
- $23.4k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $16.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.839 | 0.935 | $3.50 | +$0.36 |
| Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? · No | 0.864 | 0.925 | $3.49 | +$0.23 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.939 | 0.983 | $2.08 | +$0.09 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.966 | $1.96 | +$0.13 |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.870 | $1.76 | −$0.02 |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.890 | $1.73 | +$0.06 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.745 | $1.60 | −$0.29 |
| Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.430 | $0.85 | −$0.93 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.60at 0.650US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$3.37at 0.999Will West Ham win on 2025-05-11?
- +$1.34at 0.838French election called by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.17at 0.720Valorant: Team Liquid Brazil vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3)
- +$1.02at 0.730Warriors vs. Thunder
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 09:51 | Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.78 |
| 09-04 10:12 | Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.78 |
| 08-21 08:47 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9389999915 | $1.99 |
| 08-11 11:57 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799995903 | $1.89 |
| 08-04 11:47 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.8199997236 | $1.78 |
| 07-28 10:08 | GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.52 |
| 07-21 11:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21? | BUY | 0.8099999727 | $1.78 |
| 07-14 11:08 | Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | BUY | 0.8599996189 | $1.67 |
| 07-06 13:50 | Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%? | BUY | 0.8699995769 | $1.83 |
| 06-30 03:04 | Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.53 |
| 06-22 15:37 | Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? | BUY | 0.9299999892 | $1.73 |
| 06-14 14:08 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? | BUY | 0.9679999873 | $1.83 |
| 06-07 14:18 | Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8? | BUY | 0.8799999615 | $1.83 |
| 05-31 13:17 | Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.6499998682 | $1.48 |
| 05-24 14:14 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999996066 | $1.83 |