PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Lilysh

0xb08ab6517ffced44f16a22bb08f1bab96d93a7da

Realised P&L
$-163.84
Volume
$23.4k
Markets traded
114
Open portfolio
$16.97

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded114
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration72.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8390.935$3.50+$0.36
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? · No0.8640.925$3.49+$0.23
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes0.9390.983$2.08+$0.09
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.966$1.96+$0.13
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · No0.8800.870$1.76$0.02
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No0.8600.890$1.73+$0.06
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No0.8800.745$1.60$0.29
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes0.9000.430$0.85$0.93
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8? · Yes0.8800.000$0.00$1.83

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 09:51Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?BUY0.9$1.78
09-04 10:12Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?BUY0.88$1.78
08-21 08:47Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?BUY0.9389999915$1.99
08-11 11:57Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8799995903$1.89
08-04 11:47Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.8199997236$1.78
07-28 10:08GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.97$1.52
07-21 11:44S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?BUY0.8099999727$1.78
07-14 11:08Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?BUY0.8599996189$1.67
07-06 13:50Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%?BUY0.8699995769$1.83
06-30 03:04Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?BUY0.8$1.53
06-22 15:37Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?BUY0.9299999892$1.73
06-14 14:08Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?BUY0.9679999873$1.83
06-07 14:18Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8?BUY0.8799999615$1.83
05-31 13:17Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?BUY0.6499998682$1.48
05-24 14:14Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?BUY0.8999996066$1.83