ken2983
0xb04609ce1ce7c889fdf95ea5c62efeff245d3981
- Realised P&L
- $8.49
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $36.74
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.055 | $36.74 | −$13.26 |
| Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| SHEIN IPO before 2027? · No | 0.249 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET · Down | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.85at 0.124Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$15.67at 0.621Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
- +$5.68at 0.477Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
- +$5.16at 0.646Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
- +$1.18at 0.359Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 07:35 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0797945291 | $40.00 |
| 07-30 07:34 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $11.15 |
| 07-30 07:34 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.41 | $11.71 |
| 07-15 23:35 | Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0459201744 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 23:33 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 07-15 23:30 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.2489999661 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 23:27 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $10.00 |
| 07-15 22:05 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.752 | $31.33 |
| 07-15 21:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1799999928 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 21:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $40.90 |
| 07-15 21:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 21:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 21:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |