0xb03c37dad498293cD4eFa5e37372B4889ABbCd31-1773556000499
0xb03c37dad498293cd4efa5e37372b4889abbcd31
- Realised P&L
- $-93.66
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $38.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.095 | $29.59 | −$21.93 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 13? · Yes | 0.263 | 0.265 | $9.01 | +$0.08 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET · Up | 0.432 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.318 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET · Down | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET · Up | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.46 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.58at 0.656Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
- +$0.67at 0.270Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?
- +$0.41at 0.925Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
- +$0.05at 0.869Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
- +$-0.30at 0.027Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 06:10 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 10-13 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 13? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.52 |
| 10-13 04:40 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.27 | $9.99 |
| 07-19 21:22 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.317999792 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 23:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.10 |
| 06-14 06:02 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 06-13 23:03 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 22:11 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 22:10 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 02:55 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.18 | $4.87 |
| 05-09 23:21 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 05-09 23:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.70 |
| 05-09 23:20 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 05-09 23:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.14 |
| 05-09 23:19 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2299999603 | $4.00 |