mishimash
0xafd5274522c6ee21489a85d23e4036e4dad062f3
- Realised P&L
- $-149.64
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $48.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.14at 0.432Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$6.10at 0.879Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?
- +$6.00at 0.769Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
- +$4.20at 0.580Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.20at 0.580Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 12:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 08-07 12:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 8? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 08-07 12:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 08-07 12:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 7? | BUY | 0.41 | $4.10 |
| 08-07 10:54 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 08-07 10:53 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 08-07 10:52 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 08-07 10:52 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 08-07 10:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 08-07 10:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9? | SELL | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 08-07 10:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 8? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 08-07 08:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.991 | $14.87 |
| 08-07 08:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $3.20 |
| 08-07 08:13 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.979 | $3.22 |
| 08-07 08:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.15 |