mishimash
0xafd5274522c6ee21489a85d23e4036e4dad062f3
- Realised P&L
- $-826.08
- Volume
- $51.0k
- Markets traded
- 971
- Open portfolio
- $92.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded971
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.992 | $58.50 | +$0.09 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.945 | $18.89 | +$0.11 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 1? · No | 0.989 | 0.993 | $15.28 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.43at 0.692Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 28?
- +$13.15at 0.177Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 10?
- +$13.13at 0.933Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 25?
- +$12.86at 0.444Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$8.47at 0.879Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 06:34 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $58.41 |
| 10-01 06:33 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.89 |
| 10-01 06:32 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.9396548274 | $18.78 |
| 10-01 06:29 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.995 | $92.53 |
| 10-01 05:54 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.989 | $91.98 |
| 10-01 04:16 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $91.91 |
| 09-30 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.92 |
| 09-30 17:31 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-30 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-30 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-30 17:30 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-30 17:29 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.982 | $8.84 |
| 09-30 17:29 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.90 |
| 09-30 17:28 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.981 | $9.81 |
| 09-30 17:28 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.979987 | $9.80 |