Ameliafgbx
0xafc12edb2ebe3f0cad2b41f87c0ee14b39a526cc
- Realised P&L
- $-121.02
- Volume
- $15.4k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $19.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Club León FC win on 2026-10-20? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.255 | $19.38 | +$0.38 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs · Invictus Gaming | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.40 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.80 |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.41 |
| 49ers vs. Chargers · Chargers | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.96 |
| Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-17? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.44 |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18? · Yes | 0.567 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B · MIBR | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.92 |
| France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 · Over | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.90 |
| UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Mario Pinto (Heavyweight, Prelims) · Ryan Spann | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.36 |
| World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy · Italy | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$373.50at 0.500Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$362.08at 0.500Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$358.56at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in April 2026?
- +$156.24at 0.500Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?
- +$149.10at 0.500Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 09:40 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $167.82 |
| 10-20 09:40 | Will Club León FC win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.25 | $9.00 |
| 10-20 09:40 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 10-20 09:40 | Will Club León FC win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 10-20 09:39 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $68.00 |
| 09-16 06:07 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.998 | $169.83 |
| 09-16 06:06 | LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs | BUY | 0.56 | $22.40 |
| 09-16 06:05 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.00 |
| 09-05 03:35 | UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Mario Pinto (Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.24 | $15.36 |
| 08-19 05:54 | 49ers vs. Chargers | BUY | 0.48 | $12.96 |
| 08-12 03:02 | Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B | BUY | 0.47 | $16.92 |
| 07-22 06:25 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox | BUY | 0.44 | $30.80 |
| 06-30 08:59 | France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.45 | $9.90 |
| 06-18 09:34 | Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | BUY | 0.27 | $20.41 |
| 05-25 11:28 | World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy | BUY | 0.46 | $31.96 |