alenyshka
0xafaf3753941d357e18cef5f12bf66310a22acf68
- Realised P&L
- $18.04
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $221.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? · No | 0.949 | 0.985 | $57.07 | +$2.09 |
| Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat? · No | 0.960 | 0.981 | $55.59 | +$1.19 |
| Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.977 | 0.973 | $53.33 | −$0.25 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.979 | 0.987 | $50.93 | +$0.39 |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? · No | 0.972 | 0.964 | $3.13 | −$0.03 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.977 | $1.84 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.14at 0.930Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
- +$3.02at 0.944Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$1.59at 0.930Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$1.30at 0.965Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- +$1.25at 0.975Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 08:06 | Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.988 | $52.36 |
| 04-20 11:44 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999987 | $21.10 |