PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

mark04

0xafa23df1c3365ce1865a8614d840c318ac8991a5

Realised P&L
$-369.68
Volume
$142.7k
Markets traded
480
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded480
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration10.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.5000.972$551.12+$267.62
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? · No0.9890.986$219.77−$0.78
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026? · No0.9770.985$98.45+$0.75
Will BNB reach $1,100 in October? · No0.9900.984$49.20−$0.30
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No0.9670.964$48.20−$0.15
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? · No0.9800.989$29.66+$0.26
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in October? · No0.9890.970$29.09−$0.58
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? · No0.9700.944$28.32−$0.78
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $2,500 by end of December? · No0.9570.972$22.71+$0.34
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by October 31, 2026? · No0.9500.971$19.41+$0.41
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5000.028$15.88−$267.62
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 17? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00−$806.70
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 13? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$4.25
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00−$5.48
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13? · Yes0.6110.000$0.00−$15.27

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-15 08:43Will BNB reach $1,100 in October?BUY0.99$49.50
10-15 08:42Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?BUY0.989$220.55
10-15 08:37Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by October 31, 2026?BUY0.95$19.00
10-15 07:53Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?BUY0.977$97.70
10-15 07:51Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in October?BUY0.989$29.67
10-15 07:27Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?BUY0.967$48.35
10-02 05:15Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?BUY0.98$29.40
10-02 05:15Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?BUY0.97$29.10
09-19 03:02Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.993$52.63
09-18 10:24Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?BUY0.999$566.43
09-18 10:18Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC?BUY0.993$99.30
09-18 10:18Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC?BUY0.992$236.52
09-18 10:14Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on September 18?BUY0.9838372985$25.64
09-18 10:14Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on September 18?BUY0.9746153846$25.34
09-18 01:16Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $2,500 by end of December?BUY0.957$22.37