mark04
0xafa23df1c3365ce1865a8614d840c318ac8991a5
- Realised P&L
- $-369.68
- Volume
- $142.7k
- Markets traded
- 480
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded480
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$105.60at 0.450Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21?
- +$43.91at 0.440Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$34.18at 0.316Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$33.34at 0.900US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
- +$29.15at 0.924Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 08:43 | Will BNB reach $1,100 in October? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.50 |
| 10-15 08:42 | Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $220.55 |
| 10-15 08:37 | Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.00 |
| 10-15 07:53 | Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $97.70 |
| 10-15 07:51 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in October? | BUY | 0.989 | $29.67 |
| 10-15 07:27 | Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.967 | $48.35 |
| 10-02 05:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? | BUY | 0.98 | $29.40 |
| 10-02 05:15 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $29.10 |
| 09-19 03:02 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $52.63 |
| 09-18 10:24 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $566.43 |
| 09-18 10:18 | Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 09-18 10:18 | Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? | BUY | 0.992 | $236.52 |
| 09-18 10:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9838372985 | $25.64 |
| 09-18 10:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9746153846 | $25.34 |
| 09-18 01:16 | Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $2,500 by end of December? | BUY | 0.957 | $22.37 |