0xaF99ff640c2D58C090A393C795B881e373A20D4D-1770995309368
0xaf99ff640c2d58c090a393c795b881e373a20d4d
- Realised P&L
- $69.28
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $94.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.127 | $89.39 | −$16.61 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.021 | $4.13 | −$7.75 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · No | 0.100 | 0.021 | $1.02 | −$3.98 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? · No | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$81.58at 0.037US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$38.64at 0.270US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$17.06at 0.170US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$-2.00at 0.002Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
- +$-4.35at 0.085Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 18:45 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.1003996085 | $5.00 |
| 10-26 12:01 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0209999999 | $2.88 |
| 10-26 10:12 | Viktor Orbán arrested by...? | BUY | 0.1499999999 | $106.00 |
| 04-23 11:56 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999872 | $9.00 |
| 04-21 20:22 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.65 |
| 04-21 15:31 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.0846921156 | $5.00 |
| 04-11 11:55 | Will Trump attend UFC 327? | BUY | 0.0641673987 | $2.00 |
| 04-11 11:52 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 04-08 08:31 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.17 |
| 04-07 23:11 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 04-07 23:09 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 04-07 22:49 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.6664012937 | $81.39 |
| 04-07 22:43 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | SELL | 0.75 | $22.06 |
| 04-07 22:07 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.399 | $5.19 |
| 04-06 12:17 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |