bonjourneedahug
0xaf8365c3b86c871cd1e6f28ae388b45087cd2852
- Realised P&L
- $5.68
- Volume
- $46.55
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $11.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona vs. West Virginia · Arizona | 0.610 | 0.600 | $2.94 | −$0.05 |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli · Flavio Cobolli | 0.650 | 0.635 | $2.92 | −$0.07 |
| Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty · Atlanta Dream | 0.430 | 0.445 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Roman Safiullin · Francisco Cerundolo | 0.500 | 0.515 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz · Novak Djokovic | 0.630 | 0.645 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Minnesota vs. Purdue · Minnesota | 0.550 | 0.545 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| UConn vs. Temple · Temple | 0.630 | 0.620 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Giants vs. Commanders · Giants | 0.380 | 0.365 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.15at 0.472Suns vs. Bulls
- +$1.10at 0.482Pelicans vs. Thunder
- +$1.02at 0.502Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
- +$0.97at 0.512Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
- +$0.76at 0.572Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adolfo Vallejo vs Valentin Royer
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 20:34 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli | BUY | 0.65 | $2.99 |
| 10-08 20:33 | Arizona vs. West Virginia | BUY | 0.6099999633 | $2.99 |
| 10-08 15:32 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:36 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Roman Safiullin | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:43 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adolfo Vallejo vs Valentin Royer | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:36 | Giants vs. Commanders | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:35 | Minnesota vs. Purdue | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:35 | Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 05:58 | UConn vs. Temple | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 01:34 | Oilers vs. Ducks | SELL | 0.45 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:38 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:37 | Suns vs. Bulls | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $0.60 |
| 10-07 06:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:34 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |