0xaf83240a5ba94d6cebcd7f20d15cde3c54758a57
0xaf83240a5ba94d6cebcd7f20d15cde3c54758a57
- Realised P&L
- $5.04
- Volume
- $169.82
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $8.87
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.930 | $1.45 | +$0.45 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.960 | $1.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.880 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.865 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 13? · Up | 0.350 | 0.400 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.430 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $720 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.455 | $0.70 | −$0.30 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.425 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.070 | $0.18 | −$0.82 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.32at 0.237SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $117.50 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$1.61at 0.389SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 02:41 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 18:38 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $720 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 10:30 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 02:30 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.00 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:26 | Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 10:12 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 01:06 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:50 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:20 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 09:57 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:38 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $775 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:35 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:21 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:16 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |