kilmelt
0xaf780e653bdcffc953600811ab38c02648605b41
- Realised P&L
- $-34.17
- Volume
- $16.6k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $17.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.93at 0.012Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?
- +$16.35at 0.035Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
- +$16.13at 0.025Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
- +$10.35at 0.390Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland
- +$10.00at 0.009Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:51 | Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.52 |
| 09-16 16:09 | Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 22:38 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 21:55 | Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999222 | $1.67 |
| 05-15 21:54 | Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999817 | $7.67 |
| 05-15 21:53 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.5109999982 | $13.44 |
| 05-15 11:46 | Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.1069999089 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 11:43 | Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 20:06 | Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.92 |
| 05-13 20:06 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.4599999564 | $1.90 |
| 05-13 20:05 | Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 05-13 20:05 | Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.8599999991 | $20.00 |
| 05-13 15:52 | Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.54 |
| 05-10 12:43 | Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.5699999335 | $3.00 |
| 05-10 12:43 | Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |