0x105d2E274A02bd026f6E47aE8604fF6c977aB33C-1749669718115
0xaf5b97a42a0f201ccbdfa071424dc5789e3afb1d
- Realised P&L
- $-151.37
- Volume
- $39.3k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $39.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by September 30? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.004 | $27.11 | −$335.22 |
| Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.221 | 0.155 | $12.62 | −$5.38 |
| Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$284.22 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$121.50 |
| Will Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona FC win on 2026-09-05? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? · No | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$466.36at 0.229Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-05?
- +$131.69at 0.220Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$72.73at 0.127Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
- +$23.56at 0.090Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
- +$-3.03at 0.104Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 20:05 | Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-05? | BUY | 0.2199999989 | $133.00 |
| 09-05 18:14 | Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.221068812 | $18.00 |
| 09-05 18:13 | Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1894434492 | $12.00 |
| 09-05 17:24 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.029946761 | $90.00 |
| 09-04 20:02 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.0247928213 | $25.00 |
| 07-25 09:55 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.05 | $209.78 |
| 07-25 09:54 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.1518288447 | $442.32 |
| 07-21 17:59 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $86.00 |
| 07-21 17:58 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $300.00 |
| 07-21 11:05 | Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? | SELL | 0.07421816 | $92.77 |
| 07-21 11:05 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | SELL | 0.3648593649 | $331.69 |
| 07-20 09:22 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.0599999923 | $7.00 |
| 07-20 08:50 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.1299999989 | $100.00 |
| 07-18 15:25 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | SELL | 0.08 | $14.73 |
| 07-18 15:25 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | SELL | 0.0880840903 | $16.97 |