PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ASTROHADES

0xaf4ceb2723e90bd073d27243893d14cd51eed5db

Realised P&L
$-38.50
Volume
$142.0k
Markets traded
540
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded540
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.5330.670$205.94+$42.20
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? · No0.2490.822$168.53+$117.39
Pacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.9740.958$124.54−$2.08
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.8060.850$107.10+$5.56
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No0.8900.930$83.69+$3.60
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.9440.861$79.42−$7.67
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.5100.445$64.97−$9.49
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.9630.976$58.56+$0.78
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.9270.956$57.36+$1.74
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No0.9550.952$57.12−$0.18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No0.8300.935$56.10+$6.30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.8100.885$53.10+$4.50
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.9200.938$46.88+$0.88
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.9580.956$46.56−$0.10
Will DN SOOPers make a roster change by December? · Yes0.7300.740$44.40+$0.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-28 10:48Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?BUY0.68$88.40
10-28 10:31Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?BUY0.989$122.64
10-28 10:30Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?BUY0.988$4.94
10-28 10:22Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.952$109.48
10-25 05:03Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?BUY0.36$10.80
10-25 05:01Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?BUY0.36$54.00
10-25 05:00Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?BUY0.953$142.95
10-24 02:27Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY0.81$81.00
10-23 09:19Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY0.62$37.20
10-22 05:02Pacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.974$126.62
10-22 04:57Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?BUY0.36$18.00
10-22 04:57Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?BUY0.36$30.60
10-22 04:56Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?BUY0.34$0.17
10-22 04:54Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?BUY0.31$18.60
10-22 04:52Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY0.12$6.60