muhammadsalem
0xaf3bd5801840bb976dd1d89f7905d8ac9daebe1d
- Realised P&L
- $3.81
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $191.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.983 | 0.981 | $49.02 | −$0.13 |
| Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.963 | 0.972 | $48.60 | +$0.45 |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? · No | 0.976 | 0.961 | $48.02 | −$0.77 |
| Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · No | 0.940 | 0.925 | $46.25 | −$0.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.95at 0.961Megaquake by June 30?
- +$0.95at 0.951Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.975Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.36at 0.982Trump out as President by April 30?
- +$0.35at 0.973Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 11:03 | Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | SELL | 0.964 | $48.20 |
| 04-29 11:12 | Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.976 | $48.80 |
| 04-08 06:46 | Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY | 0.982 | $19.64 |