bigwinster
0xaf27647b85bceace5c1addbdfcf32bd02a80b9d2
- Realised P&L
- $-2.90
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $116.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C · Team Liquid | 0.780 | 0.895 | $26.85 | +$3.45 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.855 | $25.65 | +$0.15 |
| Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.875 | $17.50 | +$0.30 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.898 | 0.285 | $14.28 | −$30.62 |
| Jingshan: Aliona Falei vs Kristiana Sidorova · Kristiana Sidorova | 0.840 | 0.462 | $13.85 | −$11.36 |
| Will Belarus win on 2026-10-03? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.880 | $7.04 | −$0.16 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.675 | $6.75 | +$0.25 |
| Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.495 | $4.95 | −$0.05 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET · Down | 0.645 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.70 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.20 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.90 |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.251 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.42at 0.668US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$21.00at 0.782Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?
- +$14.40at 0.430Grok 4.20 released by January 31?
- +$11.10at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
- +$8.94at 0.850Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:07 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $25.50 |
| 10-01 09:06 | Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 10-01 05:59 | Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $59.93 |
| 09-30 13:10 | Will Belarus win on 2026-10-03? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 09-30 13:08 | Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 09-30 13:08 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 09-30 13:08 | Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 12:47 | China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.77 | $11.55 |
| 09-29 10:47 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.898 | $44.90 |
| 09-29 10:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $45.50 |
| 08-28 06:04 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.9039735092 | $30.00 |
| 08-28 06:02 | Will Trump say "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.7599999483 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 06:02 | Will Trump say "Alien" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.8599999742 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 06:00 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $132.34 |
| 08-10 13:52 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.9399999997 | $124.78 |