constanting
0xaf0d13992f648072399c3b886b6d1e5ee21e162c
- Realised P&L
- $-22.56
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $35.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.992 | $35.69 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$104.95at 0.500Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs S2G Esports (+1.5)
- +$2.01at 0.900Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
- +$0.67at 0.993Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?
- +$0.66at 0.981Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3?
- +$0.54at 0.997Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 03:17 | Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.96 |
| 08-20 07:53 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $35.93 |
| 07-28 07:29 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of July? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.96 |
| 07-28 07:28 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of July? | SELL | 0.1717177143 | $6.01 |
| 07-11 08:34 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of July? | BUY | 0.99 | $34.65 |
| 06-19 09:46 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of June? | BUY | 0.998 | $36.93 |
| 06-13 16:00 | Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? | BUY | 0.996 | $22.91 |
| 06-07 10:16 | Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.997 | $187.44 |
| 05-20 08:34 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.993 | $13.59 |
| 05-04 09:44 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the week of May 4 – May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $57.94 |
| 04-09 09:46 | Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 03-24 02:14 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $64.41 |
| 03-09 08:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $64.24 |
| 02-18 13:44 | Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $42.40 |
| 01-14 14:43 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $43.00 |