OutcomeUnclear
0xaee155cfcdbea58f38ae6dea1475a0198f443cea
- Realised P&L
- $10.8k
- Volume
- $367.8k
- Markets traded
- 243
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded243
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.145Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.428US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.390MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$956.70at 0.718Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$794.03at 0.814US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:50 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.446 | $133.80 |
| 08-02 13:24 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.449 | $8.98 |
| 08-02 13:09 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.425 | $246.50 |
| 08-02 01:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.93 | $464.93 |
| 08-01 19:24 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 08-01 19:17 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.08 |
| 08-01 15:44 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $34.98 |
| 08-01 15:40 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 13:24 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.698 | $51.99 |
| 08-01 13:17 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.631 | $31.42 |
| 08-01 10:38 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.788 | $7.97 |
| 08-01 10:37 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.789952755 | $401.29 |
| 08-01 10:36 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.788 | $7.88 |
| 08-01 09:59 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $155.10 |
| 08-01 09:24 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $203.23 |