OutcomeUnclear
0xaee155cfcdbea58f38ae6dea1475a0198f443cea
- Realised P&L
- $9.8k
- Volume
- $430.9k
- Markets traded
- 261
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded261
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.145Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.428US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$1.2kat 0.394MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$956.70at 0.718Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$794.03at 0.814US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:21 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.76 | $494.00 |
| 09-16 20:09 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.4k |
| 09-16 20:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.2k |
| 09-16 09:01 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.47 |
| 09-14 20:35 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $23.51 |
| 09-12 15:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $158.00 |
| 09-12 14:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $474.00 |
| 09-12 14:58 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.78 | $779.91 |
| 09-12 14:55 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $1.1k |
| 09-12 14:54 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.67 | $670.04 |
| 09-11 13:04 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.29 |
| 09-10 17:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $72.00 |
| 09-10 17:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $540.00 |
| 09-10 14:04 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.83 | $415.00 |
| 09-09 20:20 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $9.74 |