3199
0xaede80fc94e1b15bf8a6e2dcc428d9a4e3f26971
- Realised P&L
- $-70.84
- Volume
- $119.2k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $28.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.002 | $26.86 | −$94.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? · No | 0.987 | 0.993 | $1.81 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.55at 0.760Games Total: O/U 3.5
- +$1.85at 0.341Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$1.48at 0.975Will someone else be inaugurated?
- +$0.59at 0.652Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$0.45at 0.985Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 07:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9869995564 | $1.80 |
| 08-09 13:28 | Will Solana dip to $10 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.71 |
| 06-22 18:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.28 |
| 03-04 07:56 | Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.009 | $140.87 |
| 11-19 19:28 | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.005 | $104.88 |
| 11-19 19:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 20? | BUY | 0.9969999995 | $2.12 |
| 11-19 19:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 20? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.26 |
| 10-08 10:08 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.20 |
| 10-08 10:07 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,900 on October 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.05 |
| 10-08 10:06 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $103.00 |
| 05-06 17:40 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.50 |
| 05-05 18:35 | Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.005 | $7.38 |
| 05-05 18:34 | Ethereum all time high in May? | BUY | 0.996 | $75.00 |
| 01-16 09:14 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.989 | $30.00 |
| 12-19 08:25 | Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? | BUY | 0.988 | $19.37 |