chaosvd
0xae9269ead8ea0f88754d4774de2f72417b885272
- Realised P&L
- $-203.40
- Volume
- $15.8k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $34.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$639.20at 0.060Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $285?
- +$161.18at 0.341Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 24?
- +$138.33at 0.018Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
- +$108.14at 0.740Gangwon FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 3.5
- +$73.76at 0.638Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 15:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? | BUY | 0.995 | $15.01 |
| 05-28 09:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? | BUY | 0.9922728165 | $15.01 |
| 03-31 01:42 | Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2026-04-04? | BUY | 0.25 | $43.21 |
| 03-30 18:03 | US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.23 | $39.61 |
| 03-30 01:12 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $200-$205 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3? | BUY | 0.22 | $48.12 |
| 03-29 17:33 | Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 FC Bayern München? | BUY | 0.11 | $33.41 |
| 03-29 09:53 | Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? | BUY | 0.072 | $12.17 |
| 03-29 02:15 | Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,145,000 and $1,155,000 on April 1? | BUY | 0.08 | $45.63 |
| 03-28 18:30 | Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Trevmak n CO (BO1) - North America League Kickoff Group B | BUY | 0.24 | $31.27 |
| 03-28 09:45 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of March? | BUY | 0.037 | $13.77 |
| 03-24 01:25 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $285? | BUY | 0.06 | $40.80 |
| 03-20 07:58 | LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs | BUY | 0.23 | $114.00 |
| 03-19 03:27 | Spread: IK Start (-1.5) | BUY | 0.26 | $52.01 |
| 03-13 06:11 | Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.16 | $84.23 |
| 03-06 10:03 | Will DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2 | $56.25 |