PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xaE8EDe3C3838591228D86B68Ff932696b498951f-1776374042796

0xae8ede3c3838591228d86b68ff932696b498951f

Realised P&L
$46.00
Volume
$29.7k
Markets traded
53
Open portfolio
$5.05

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded53
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample46 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Nothing Ever Happens: September · Something0.0300.015$5.05−$4.95
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? · No0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$1.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? · No0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$7.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? · No0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? · No0.0040.000$0.00−$2.00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? · No0.0030.000$0.00−$3.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? · No0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00−$1.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00−$1.00
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00−$7.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET · Up0.4300.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00−$1.00
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 · Under0.4300.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-26 16:00Ethereum Up or Down on September 26?SELL0.02$0.29
09-26 15:59Ethereum Up or Down on September 26?BUY0.0699999965$1.00
09-26 15:52Nothing Ever Happens: SeptemberBUY0.0297169093$10.00
07-28 14:45Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.5$5.00
07-28 14:44Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?BUY0.4899999804$5.00
07-25 14:34Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?BUY0.001$1.00
07-18 12:53Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETBUY0.4299999871$5.00
07-09 21:16Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?SELL0.999$58.76
07-09 21:14Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY0.001$5.00
07-07 16:22Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?SELL0.83$9.88
07-07 16:19Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY0.8399999664$10.00
07-07 16:16Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY0.1699999871$10.00
07-05 12:28Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5BUY0.4299999871$5.00
07-02 20:23Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?BUY0.002$1.00
07-02 20:16Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY0.004$1.00