0xae8cfffdc890fabff6c11fd48ab5f66ca52a22eb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.67
- Volume
- $495.00
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $45.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.571 | 0.835 | $18.37 | +$5.81 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.770 | 0.805 | $8.86 | +$0.38 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.934 | 0.913 | $7.31 | −$0.16 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.845 | $4.22 | −$0.38 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.885 | $2.65 | +$1.15 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.041 | $2.05 | −$0.45 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.165 | $1.98 | −$4.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.94at 0.417Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.37at 0.605Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.34at 0.061Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$0.08at 0.896Modi out by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.230Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 17:26 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $7.36 |
| 07-04 14:56 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.50 |
| 07-02 14:06 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 06-18 19:42 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $8.66 |
| 06-15 13:35 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 06-07 23:11 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.56 |
| 06-04 07:51 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.972 | $9.72 |
| 05-25 06:26 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $12.14 |
| 05-22 22:54 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $8.47 |
| 05-20 19:01 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.896 | $4.48 |
| 05-20 19:00 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.939 | $4.69 |
| 05-20 19:00 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.061 | $1.40 |
| 05-20 19:00 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.605 | $3.02 |
| 04-21 19:48 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.902 | $5.41 |
| 04-18 00:48 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $4.56 |