pour-la-retraite
0xae7715ffc320f0e7e87f6f7372e708446815c716
- Realised P&L
- $33.72
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms? · Yes | 0.869 | 0.845 | $482.18 | −$13.70 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.945 | $397.89 | −$2.10 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.935 | $356.10 | −$1.90 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.935 | $337.81 | +$1.81 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.715 | $110.68 | −$2.32 |
| Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? · Yes | 0.988 | 1.000 | $10.12 | +$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.48at 0.945Will Vance peak at Category 2?
- +$24.04at 0.900Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?
- +$9.60at 0.969US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
- +$7.78at 0.975US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
- +$7.56at 0.965Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:01 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $336.00 |
| 11-01 08:38 | Will the Democratic Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.8690079346 | $495.88 |
| 11-01 08:37 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $400.00 |
| 11-01 08:37 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $358.00 |
| 10-30 17:17 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7299999979 | $113.00 |
| 10-30 17:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9717564455 | $80.00 |
| 10-30 17:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9709999928 | $8.00 |
| 10-30 17:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9703396834 | $40.00 |
| 10-29 17:38 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9783206641 | $180.00 |
| 10-29 14:14 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9659999999 | $60.00 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9659866664 | $71.00 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.964999999 | $28.00 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.962838236 | $5.00 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $4.00 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9609999991 | $39.00 |