surfa
0xae671ffd7421c2fc2b4ad6eb21dedfec3ad57cc8
- Realised P&L
- $3.0k
- Volume
- $135.0k
- Markets traded
- 151
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded151
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.037 | $666.66 | −$246.11 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.725 | $543.75 | −$18.75 |
| Texans vs. Colts: O/U 42.5 · Under | 0.520 | 1.000 | $399.80 | +$191.80 |
| Spread: Bengals (-2.5) · Steelers | 0.450 | 1.000 | $399.80 | +$219.80 |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5 · Over | 0.500 | 0.675 | $337.50 | +$87.50 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.220 | 0.075 | $300.00 | −$580.00 |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers · Buccaneers | 0.515 | 0.245 | $245.00 | −$270.00 |
| Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5 · Under | 0.480 | 0.475 | $237.50 | −$2.50 |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5 · Under | 0.540 | 0.425 | $212.50 | −$57.50 |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5 · Under | 0.490 | 0.400 | $200.00 | −$45.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.554Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.727Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$978.68at 0.752Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in July?
- +$884.06at 0.557Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?
- +$576.00at 0.712Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 21:02 | Rams vs. Broncos: O/U 43.5 | BUY | 0.48 | $240.00 |
| 09-27 20:13 | Patriots vs. Jaguars | SELL | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 09-27 20:06 | Vikings vs. Buccaneers | BUY | 0.49 | $245.00 |
| 09-27 20:05 | Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $250.00 |
| 09-27 19:58 | Vikings vs. Buccaneers: O/U 42.5 | BUY | 0.49 | $245.00 |
| 09-27 16:56 | Spread: Bengals (-2.5) | BUY | 0.45 | $180.00 |
| 09-27 16:55 | Spread: Lions (-6.5) | BUY | 0.53 | $265.00 |
| 09-27 16:54 | Patriots vs. Jaguars | BUY | 0.6 | $300.00 |
| 09-27 16:52 | Titans vs. Giants | BUY | 0.44 | $220.00 |
| 09-27 16:51 | Texans vs. Colts: O/U 42.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $208.00 |
| 09-27 16:50 | Spread: Seahawks (-8.5) | BUY | 0.48 | $240.00 |
| 09-27 16:49 | Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) | BUY | 0.45 | $225.00 |
| 09-27 01:00 | Georgia Tech vs. Stanford | BUY | 0.42 | $126.00 |
| 09-27 00:54 | Spread: Oregon State (-11.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $150.00 |
| 09-26 23:30 | Spread: SMU (-30.5) | BUY | 0.49 | $70.76 |