0xae5150919cb1653870789be444e8c323524f5bfc
0xae5150919cb1653870789be444e8c323524f5bfc
- Realised P&L
- $-5.50
- Volume
- $224.44
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $3.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.964 | $1.63 | +$0.63 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.385 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.185 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.95at 0.260US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$2.96at 0.420Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?
- +$1.78at 0.540US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$1.77at 0.410US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:56 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:48 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 13:40 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:47 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 04:42 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:22 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:56 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:42 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:31 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:27 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.09 |
| 09-21 06:04 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.409999998 | $2.09 |
| 09-20 21:54 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $212 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999949 | $1.34 |
| 09-19 09:08 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3599999724 | $2.09 |
| 09-19 01:06 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999749 | $2.09 |