riversdowninmexico
0xae409e862f131df865b35a6e50bd0c38f75626df
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $744.4k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $32.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.30at 0.015Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24?
- +$-0.50at 0.030Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1?
- +$-0.72at 0.030Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?
- +$-0.97at 0.012Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?
- +$-1.10at 0.011MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.003 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 18:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 16? | BUY | 0.006 | $3.00 |
| 09-15 18:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.005 | $12.00 |
| 09-15 18:00 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 17:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 17:20 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.005 | $12.00 |
| 09-15 17:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.00 |
| 09-15 15:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.01 | $6.92 |
| 09-15 15:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.010908129 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 15:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.0037698589 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 15:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 16? | BUY | 0.0157642506 | $13.24 |
| 09-15 15:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.012 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 14:13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 16? | BUY | 0.0069651741 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 14:13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 16? | BUY | 0.006 | $3.00 |
| 09-15 06:14 | Trump out as President by September 30? | SELL | 0.005 | $11.90 |