EUfirst
0xae31c5daff96da901abfbebcff6fd81c0c367fa1
- Realised P&L
- $-6.2k
- Volume
- $1.05M
- Markets traded
- 406
- Open portfolio
- $92.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded406
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.290 | $87.00 | −$21.00 |
| Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.028 | $5.38 | −$0.17 |
| Meta (META) Up or Down on July 31? · Down | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.25 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in July? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.50 |
| Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? · No | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.09 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 31? · Down | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in July? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.85 |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on July 17, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$916.61at 0.100US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
- +$785.34at 0.241US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$623.33at 0.134US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
- +$615.04at 0.462Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
- +$597.33at 0.016Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 11:05 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 10:55 | Meta (META) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $6.25 |
| 07-31 10:51 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in July? | BUY | 0.0099090992 | $10.90 |
| 07-31 10:50 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in July? | BUY | 0.07 | $10.50 |
| 07-16 06:11 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $108.00 |
| 07-16 05:58 | Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | BUY | 0.0569706667 | $17.09 |
| 07-16 05:32 | Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.03 | $3.75 |
| 07-16 05:31 | Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.0267451185 | $1.79 |
| 07-16 05:26 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.4199999944 | $30.00 |
| 07-16 05:04 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.6558373206 | $137.07 |
| 07-16 05:03 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.655 | $52.83 |
| 07-16 05:02 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.654 | $3.27 |
| 07-16 04:54 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 06-24 19:19 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.10 |
| 06-24 01:53 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting? | BUY | 0.08 | $11.12 |