haveagoodday
0xae2a545c068389c5aab3466cecef33259e55384d
- Realised P&L
- $23.2k
- Volume
- $1.06M
- Markets traded
- 14,947
- Open portfolio
- $913.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded14,947
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.298Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$3.7kat 0.167Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.6kat 0.915Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$1.5kat 0.217Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- +$1.3kat 0.143Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:16 | Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Nuevo León Congress election? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 11-02 00:16 | Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 11-02 00:15 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.991 | $26.17 |
| 11-02 00:13 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.77 | $23.10 |
| 11-02 00:13 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $44.87 |
| 11-02 00:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.89 | $26.70 |
| 11-02 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.72 | $21.60 |
| 11-02 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.64 | $19.20 |
| 11-02 00:11 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 11-02 00:09 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%? | BUY | 0.949 | $28.47 |
| 11-02 00:08 | Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 11-01 23:59 | Will Michael Jackson have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | BUY | 0.999 | $74.92 |
| 11-01 23:58 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.75 |
| 11-01 23:53 | Will Gleisi Hoffmann be the next Brazilian Chief of Staff? | BUY | 0.99287896 | $124.11 |
| 11-01 23:52 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.67 | $7.11 |