PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

haveagoodday

0xae2a545c068389c5aab3466cecef33259e55384d

Realised P&L
$5.0k
Volume
$323.1k
Markets traded
1,604
Open portfolio
$28.27

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,604
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration81.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration22.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.5400.545$5.45+$0.05
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.4500.445$4.45$0.05
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? · Yes0.3220.989$2.75+$1.85
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? · Yes0.0500.004$2.16$21.79
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ARPC? · Yes0.0500.005$1.47$11.90
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on September 16? · Yes0.0910.016$0.96$4.49
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open? · Yes0.0210.001$0.63$25.60
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on September 16? · Yes0.0910.005$0.41$6.29
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD? · Yes0.0480.040$0.40$0.08
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on September 17? · Yes0.0910.010$0.35$2.83
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on September 17? · Yes0.0910.010$0.35$2.83
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on September 17? · Yes0.0910.010$0.35$2.83
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 37.0 and 37.5 million views on day 4? · Yes0.0200.155$0.34+$0.29
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 36.0 and 36.5 million views on day 4? · Yes0.0200.121$0.26+$0.22
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 17? · Yes0.0910.010$0.20$1.62

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 05:14Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.96$38.40
09-16 05:13Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?BUY0.999$8.99
09-16 05:13Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 20%-25%?BUY0.95$9.50
09-16 05:13Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 20%-25%?BUY0.95$6.65
09-16 05:11Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-09 House election by 60%-65%?BUY0.86$8.60
09-16 05:07Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 17?BUY0.98$6.86
09-16 05:06Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 17?BUY0.8044444444$7.24
09-16 05:05Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?BUY0.999$39.96
09-16 05:03Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?BUY0.920862963$124.32
09-16 05:02Will Mistral be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?BUY0.999$11.99
09-16 05:02Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?BUY0.999$9.99
09-16 05:01Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?BUY0.999$9.99
09-16 04:59Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 17?BUY0.9983888889$17.97
09-16 04:59Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 17?BUY0.999$6.99
09-16 04:58Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 16?BUY0.998$9.98