CraicAddict
0xae299cbae1204822f8b5e41c1b522fbe878e1c87
- Realised P&L
- $-825.55
- Volume
- $32.2k
- Markets traded
- 140
- Open portfolio
- $36.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded140
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.061 | $36.60 | +$31.80 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$329.06at 0.625US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$237.42at 0.348Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?
- +$96.79at 0.674Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
- +$88.14at 0.543Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?
- +$53.45at 0.428US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 06:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.999 | $346.21 |
| 07-01 10:26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $20.00 |
| 06-27 10:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 06-26 15:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9199999977 | $130.00 |
| 06-26 06:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.43 | $8.60 |
| 06-22 09:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9499999981 | $100.00 |
| 06-21 11:19 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0669644 | $33.48 |
| 06-19 13:53 | Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.42 |
| 06-19 12:04 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $350.00 |
| 06-19 05:27 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $18.74 |
| 06-19 05:21 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $86.00 |
| 06-19 05:20 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $60.77 |
| 06-19 05:19 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $9.02 |
| 06-14 18:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $50.00 |
| 06-14 18:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |