vivalibertad
0xae0d7b437f018627c73316048000860034a9b73d
- Realised P&L
- $-6.1k
- Volume
- $153.6k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $36.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.273 | 0.100 | $36.69 | −$63.30 |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Maduro out in 2025? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$307.00 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out in 2025? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$436.70 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$918.20at 0.205Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
- +$711.58at 0.424Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
- +$120.05at 0.783Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?
- +$115.92at 0.697U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
- +$19.65at 0.181Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-25 08:36 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $80.15 |
| 04-01 08:59 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2725185483 | $100.00 |
| 03-30 13:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.0699999997 | $207.00 |
| 03-30 12:52 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.00 |
| 03-30 12:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $11.77 |
| 03-20 19:08 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0209999992 | $25.00 |
| 03-18 22:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.029 | $55.00 |
| 03-18 22:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.029 | $100.00 |
| 03-14 21:48 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0369999965 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 21:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0604501373 | $300.00 |
| 03-05 16:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.3899999999 | $1.5k |
| 03-05 16:05 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | SELL | 0.111 | $28.28 |
| 03-05 16:04 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $1.5k |
| 02-28 07:11 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | BUY | 0.0498822606 | $12.71 |
| 02-28 07:10 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? | SELL | 0.2833333333 | $12.71 |