0xae0893220d96e68bd4fe4428fa96ed2d1650f155
0xae0893220d96e68bd4fe4428fa96ed2d1650f155
- Realised P&L
- $-3.05
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 343
- Open portfolio
- $13.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded343
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.895 | $3.73 | +$1.23 |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.979 | $3.10 | +$0.60 |
| Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.615 | $1.80 | −$0.39 |
| Will Trump say "Vegan" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · No | 0.830 | 0.845 | $1.49 | +$0.03 |
| Will Trump say "Columbus" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.760 | $1.34 | −$0.12 |
| Will Trump say "Border" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.725 | $1.09 | +$0.05 |
| Will BlackRock (BLK) Q3 quarterly total net inflows be above $225B? · No | 0.820 | 0.800 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.90at 0.196Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on April 24?
- +$7.50at 0.250Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?
- +$7.50at 0.250Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 25?
- +$7.29at 0.216Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?
- +$7.12at 0.260Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 13:37 | Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.4599999719 | $2.29 |
| 05-04 13:20 | Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.3099999122 | $1.66 |
| 05-03 12:50 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 04-28 02:15 | Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit? | BUY | 0.4099999437 | $2.04 |
| 04-27 14:50 | Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $144 end of April? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 04-27 14:31 | Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? | BUY | 0.2160133692 | $2.01 |
| 04-27 13:32 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of April? | BUY | 0.3669999127 | $1.96 |
| 04-27 11:26 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of April? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.22 |
| 04-24 14:30 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on April 24? | BUY | 0.189999938 | $2.26 |
| 04-24 05:14 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 20 - 26) | BUY | 0.3 | $1.42 |
| 04-23 16:17 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on April 23? | BUY | 0.4619998949 | $2.22 |
| 04-20 14:38 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on April 20? | BUY | 0.35 | $2.32 |
| 04-20 14:32 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on April 20? | BUY | 0.4599999233 | $2.30 |
| 04-20 01:44 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on April 20? | BUY | 0.4199999624 | $2.35 |
| 04-20 01:26 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299998993 | $1.37 |