bayareahouseparty
0xae0476c8ec5d2c04031262efa22c7c89b332511a
- Realised P&L
- $-544.57
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $55.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration54.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.025 | $29.92 | −$90.08 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.040 | $16.46 | −$83.54 |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.015 | $9.05 | −$50.95 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-14 23:41 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999987 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 23:35 | NATO dissolves before 2027? | BUY | 0.0961267335 | $60.00 |
| 01-14 23:32 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.0949999961 | $20.00 |
| 01-14 23:23 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999986 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 23:18 | US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1022800634 | $120.00 |
| 01-14 23:14 | US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999985 | $100.00 |
| 01-14 23:14 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.309999998 | $100.00 |