Kactus
0xadf18a599d0c73e432d042ad6d922051ae796460
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $94.3k
- Markets traded
- 497
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded497
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.645 | $1.3k | +$290.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.355 | $710.00 | −$290.00 |
| Will no Lemonade Stand episode air? · No | 0.905 | 0.971 | $235.67 | +$15.91 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ? · No | 0.867 | 0.986 | $186.99 | +$22.55 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "NHS" during the next PMQ? · No | 0.933 | 0.994 | $69.58 | +$4.27 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "King" or "Queen" during the next PMQ? · No | 0.971 | 0.994 | $24.44 | +$0.56 |
| Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? · No | 0.750 | 0.900 | $22.51 | +$3.75 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ? · No | 0.970 | 0.992 | $19.83 | +$0.43 |
| Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? · No | 0.068 | 0.046 | $13.93 | −$6.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$283.86at 0.050Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?
- +$198.38at 0.293Will Anna Wintour be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?
- +$156.51at 0.262Will Donald Trump's tie be another color on May 10, 2026?
- +$156.13at 0.073Will no episode air?
- +$151.76at 0.002Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 10:05 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 09-28 09:50 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.75 | $22.50 |
| 09-28 06:01 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.80 |
| 09-28 05:50 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.48 | $14.40 |
| 09-28 05:48 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.52 | $15.61 |
| 09-28 03:24 | Will no Lemonade Stand episode air? | BUY | 0.071 | $0.37 |
| 09-28 02:58 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.66 | $19.80 |
| 09-28 01:15 | Will no Lemonade Stand episode air? | BUY | 0.8815833333 | $63.47 |
| 09-27 22:03 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | SELL | 0.91 | $5.86 |
| 09-27 22:01 | Will anyone say "Iran" during South Park E2 S29? | SELL | 0.9 | $16.74 |
| 09-27 14:14 | Will anyone say "Iran" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.61 | $18.30 |
| 09-27 14:06 | Will anyone say "Kenny" 5+ times during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.31 | $9.30 |
| 09-27 14:01 | Will anyone say "Kenny" 5+ times during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.52 | $15.60 |
| 09-27 13:43 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.0796721311 | $4.86 |
| 09-27 13:17 | Will anyone say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during South Park E2 S29? | BUY | 0.75 | $45.00 |