0xadEe3155d14E3bba405eD1C9D38F999431c5d89C-1733923036058
0xadee3155d14e3bba405ed1c9d38f999431c5d89c
- Realised P&L
- $-42.18
- Volume
- $5.4k
- Markets traded
- 170
- Open portfolio
- $51.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded170
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 19? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $33.38 | −$0.02 |
| Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No | 0.993 | 0.999 | $18.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.11at 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21?
- +$16.14at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 19?
- +$15.21at 0.748Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 2?
- +$14.33at 0.749Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 17?
- +$13.61at 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $33.40 |
| 09-07 08:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 8? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.80 |
| 09-06 04:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.996 | $25.00 |
| 09-03 19:40 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $24.70 |
| 09-02 23:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 2? | BUY | 0.9964641739 | $21.00 |
| 08-29 09:34 | Will George Pickens play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.00 |
| 08-27 10:19 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $36.40 |
| 08-23 11:56 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.00 |
| 08-22 06:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.00 |
| 08-19 13:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 20? | BUY | 0.997 | $28.00 |
| 08-15 11:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 10-16? | BUY | 0.998 | $28.00 |
| 08-13 15:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 10-16? | BUY | 0.998 | $30.30 |
| 08-11 17:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 12? | BUY | 0.996 | $24.00 |
| 08-10 07:52 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $26.00 |
| 08-10 06:23 | Will annual inflation be 3.9% in July? | BUY | 0.9969999819 | $37.70 |