dreamst
0xadec475c5e928ea274852230f514438d7546467d
- Realised P&L
- $-159.74
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $16.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.055 | $16.50 | −$40.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.396 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.96 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.382 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.48at 0.269Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?
- +$14.05at 0.740Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?
- +$12.31at 0.670Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?
- +$11.00at 0.900Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$6.00at 0.230Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-26 18:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 02-26 18:28 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.07 | $5.46 |
| 02-10 11:57 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $28.66 |
| 02-07 09:17 | Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $57.00 |
| 02-07 09:13 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $17.86 |
| 02-06 19:09 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $89.70 |
| 01-31 10:35 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.19 | $18.62 |
| 01-27 15:04 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $97.50 |
| 01-26 11:43 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.74 | $116.18 |
| 01-24 09:14 | Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY | 0.75 | $117.75 |
| 12-10 04:16 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.9 | $99.00 |
| 10-31 16:49 | Will the Government shutdown end by October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 10-28 11:17 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | BUY | 0.396 | $16.75 |
| 10-28 10:39 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |
| 10-28 10:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? | SELL | 0.00798675 | $0.64 |