vxxxxv
0xadd0c717c29860586094dc197c0506f84a89df58
- Realised P&L
- $565.09
- Volume
- $38.9k
- Markets traded
- 337
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded337
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.885 | 0.989 | $3.0k | +$310.50 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.976 | $1.1k | +$127.05 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? · No | 0.350 | 0.355 | $35.50 | +$0.50 |
| USD1 depeg by December 31? · No | 0.720 | 0.945 | $8.77 | +$2.09 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? · No | 0.089 | 0.105 | $5.25 | +$0.80 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.018 | $0.16 | −$0.10 |
| LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1? · No | 0.612 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.12 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$201.16at 0.770Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$100.47at 0.377Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 5?
- +$72.93at 0.089Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6?
- +$48.99at 0.041Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on March 25?
- +$37.00at 0.260Lakers vs. Trail Blazers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 10:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.03 | $0.26 |
| 10-01 08:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 10-01 08:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? | BUY | 0.089 | $4.45 |
| 09-30 14:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.024 | $12.00 |
| 09-30 14:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | SELL | 0.97505 | $97.50 |
| 09-28 18:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.916 | $91.60 |
| 09-28 16:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? | BUY | 0.965 | $289.50 |
| 09-27 02:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | BUY | 0.932 | $27.06 |
| 09-27 02:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | BUY | 0.933 | $466.50 |
| 09-27 02:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $973.00 |
| 09-26 13:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | BUY | 0.946 | $9.46 |
| 09-25 18:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 09-25 18:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? | BUY | 0.95 | $380.00 |
| 09-10 16:42 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 09-10 16:41 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.044 | $8.80 |