castanedapamela
0xadce32ef5bc06870de027e0ce33ce9b625f16589
- Realised P&L
- $41.14
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $91.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6? · No | 0.660 | 1.000 | $56.00 | +$19.04 |
| Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 9? · No | 0.610 | 0.680 | $35.96 | +$3.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.69at 0.322Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$17.21at 0.620San Diego 2: Dylan Dietrich vs Henry Searle
- +$10.11at 0.998Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$1.10at 0.979OpenAI browser in July?
- +$0.35at 0.990Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:26 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999301 | $12.14 |
| 01-30 12:37 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9989999707 | $15.53 |
| 01-30 11:58 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.37 |
| 01-30 11:52 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January? | BUY | 0.998 | $41.43 |
| 12-30 09:28 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.11 |
| 12-30 01:59 | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.92 |
| 12-30 00:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $27.19 |
| 12-29 21:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.55 |
| 10-31 00:29 | Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.67 |
| 10-30 20:20 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.66 |
| 10-30 19:56 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.9909999586 | $15.31 |
| 10-08 08:40 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | SELL | 0.826 | $12.19 |
| 09-29 13:55 | Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999829 | $15.48 |
| 09-29 04:27 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9939999717 | $18.43 |
| 09-29 01:04 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |