BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate
0xadc2efbf97ce7b25f7a638aabdba196c657cd1c9
- Realised P&L
- $166.1k
- Volume
- $47.77M
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $505.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $505.5k | +$253.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.3kat 0.989MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$22.5kat 0.979US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$14.0kat 0.994Netanyahu out by March 31?
- +$10.9kat 0.991Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$8.1kat 0.996US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:30 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $505.3k |
| 08-31 22:12 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $101.95 |
| 08-30 21:17 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.7k |
| 08-30 19:28 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.0k |
| 08-30 11:40 | Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.4k |
| 08-30 11:38 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $33.7k |
| 08-30 08:04 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $109.3k |
| 08-30 08:02 | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.3k |
| 08-30 07:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.8k |
| 08-29 12:39 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $127.87 |
| 08-29 12:37 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.6k |
| 08-28 22:08 | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.0k |
| 08-28 21:22 | Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.8k |
| 08-28 21:21 | Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9984463795 | $435.72 |
| 08-28 21:21 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |