0xadbFa7C80BE6bD5F8047177067C9DACF98C6FFBa-1761652445301
0xadbfa7c80be6bd5f8047177067c9dacf98c6ffba
- Realised P&L
- $-419.58
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $19.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.959 | $19.17 | +$1.17 |
| Hornets vs. Nets · Nets | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.85 |
| Pistons vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.45 |
| Rockets vs. Lakers · Rockets | 0.677 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$201.00 |
| Clippers vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.67 |
| Lakers vs. Rockets · Rockets | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.05 |
| Spurs vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.60 |
| Lakers vs. Magic · Magic | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$127.26 |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic · Cavaliers | 0.599 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.84 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.918 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.18 |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Hornets vs. Trail Blazers · Trail Blazers | 0.429 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.96 |
| Wizards vs. Trail Blazers · Wizards | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$103.66 |
| Pistons vs. Hornets · Hornets | 0.617 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$610.00 |
| Timberwolves vs. Mavericks · Mavericks | 0.312 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$329.53at 0.627Pacers vs. Nets
- +$244.44at 0.448Bucks vs. Nets
- +$202.72at 0.440Nuggets vs. Lakers
- +$104.50at 0.450Knicks vs. Clippers
- +$94.28at 0.824Mavericks vs. Suns
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 09:06 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.918 | $4.18 |
| 08-25 09:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 08-25 09:47 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 07-29 06:39 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $12.00 |
| 07-29 06:24 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $12.99 |
| 06-30 09:38 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $12.91 |
| 06-24 09:34 | Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.927 | $19.47 |
| 06-24 09:32 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9277794 | $92.78 |
| 05-27 05:29 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 05-23 08:47 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BUY | 0.945 | $16.90 |
| 04-23 07:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $114.84 |
| 04-18 09:25 | Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.67 | $197.02 |
| 04-10 09:00 | Pistons vs. Hornets | BUY | 0.61 | $595.73 |
| 04-09 10:13 | Pacers vs. Nets | BUY | 0.62 | $541.64 |
| 04-08 10:21 | Mavericks vs. Suns | BUY | 0.82 | $438.02 |