PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xadb58f94821f006fd207410f2fdfe33f27b6e421

Realised P&L
$3.5k
Volume
$172.7k
Markets traded
4,954
Open portfolio
$15.98

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded4,954
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Everton CD win Chile Primera? · Yes0.0560.370$4.62+$3.92
Will Deportes Limache win Chile Primera? · Yes0.0560.355$4.43+$3.74
Will Nvidia have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026? · No0.9991.000$1.28+$0.00
Will Stripe’s market cap be at least $500B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.1000.435$1.27+$0.98
Will Stripe’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.1000.430$1.26+$0.97
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No0.1500.545$0.94+$0.68
Will Awa Fam win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? · Yes0.0180.002$0.15$1.60
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.5000.001$0.09$88.41
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.5000.001$0.09$88.41
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.5000.001$0.09$88.41
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.5000.001$0.09$88.41
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.5000.001$0.09$88.41
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.0420.001$0.09$7.29
Will Breanna Stewart win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award? · Yes0.5000.036$0.09$1.09
Will Isobel Borlase win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award? · Yes0.0180.001$0.05$1.70

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-18 07:34Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETBUY0.509999948$2.65
08-18 07:29Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ETBUY0.5$2.65
08-18 07:28Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ETBUY0.8699999847$4.55
08-13 07:49Will A.J. Ewing win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.001$0.01
08-13 07:49Will Esmerlyn Valdez win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.001$0.01
08-13 07:49Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.005$0.03
08-13 07:49Will Sam Antonacci win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.001$0.01
08-13 07:49Will George Lombard Jr. win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?SELL0.001$0.01
08-13 07:49Will Nico Echavarria win the 2026 TOUR Championship?SELL0.006$0.05
08-13 07:49Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?SELL0.002$0.02
08-13 07:49Will Palestino win Chile Primera?SELL0.002$0.02
08-13 07:48Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.001$0.01
08-13 07:48Will Sean Burke win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?SELL0.001$0.02
08-13 07:48Will Bryan Woo win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?SELL0.001$0.02
08-13 07:48Will Drew Rasmussen win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?SELL0.0062475116$0.09