dfsgrht
0xad75cea421e217a313e46a50e4abc09776625117
- Realised P&L
- $-107.39
- Volume
- $20.4k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $201.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $6.50? · No | 0.999 | 0.506 | $101.40 | −$98.60 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $0.50? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.506 | $91.27 | −$88.73 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 10 above $20? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.900 | $4.50 | −$0.45 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 10 above $10? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.900 | $4.50 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.50at 0.953Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
- +$17.25at 0.985Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$14.98at 0.987Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?
- +$9.99at 0.991Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$9.08at 0.990Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 04:54 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $0.50? | BUY | 0.9987503121 | $180.00 |
| 08-09 04:54 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $6.50? | BUY | 0.9987752753 | $200.00 |
| 08-09 04:53 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 10 above $10? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-09 04:53 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 10 above $20? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-04 10:02 | Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $188.81 |
| 08-04 10:02 | Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $209.79 |
| 07-28 05:00 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $138.72 |
| 07-28 04:58 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $55.81 |
| 07-28 04:54 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 27 – Jul 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-24 23:30 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.979677578 | $281.00 |
| 07-18 00:03 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-18 00:02 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-18 00:02 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 Week of July 20 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-17 01:32 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.994 | $99.40 |
| 07-12 23:27 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17? | BUY | 0.99 | $39.60 |