dfsgrht
0xad75cea421e217a313e46a50e4abc09776625117
- Realised P&L
- $81.18
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $404.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $170.23 | −$0.60 |
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.988 | 0.998 | $152.62 | +$1.45 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $29.86 | −$0.10 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in September? · No | 0.988 | 0.963 | $24.16 | −$0.65 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in September? · No | 0.987 | 0.959 | $19.28 | −$0.56 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $280 end of September? · No | 0.990 | 0.986 | $7.89 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.50at 0.953Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
- +$17.25at 0.985Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$14.98at 0.987Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?
- +$9.99at 0.991Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$8.63at 0.990Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 01:47 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 09-21 01:45 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$30 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 21 – Sep 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $170.83 |
| 09-20 04:25 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $280 end of September? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.92 |
| 09-20 04:23 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in September? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-20 04:23 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in September? | BUY | 0.988 | $19.86 |
| 09-20 04:22 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in September? | BUY | 0.987 | $19.84 |
| 09-16 07:29 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of September 14 above $5.00? | BUY | 0.9982201391 | $128.00 |
| 09-16 07:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $50.95 |
| 09-16 07:27 | Will CZ post 60-79 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.75 |
| 09-16 07:26 | Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $63.94 |
| 09-16 07:26 | Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.24 |
| 09-12 23:40 | Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-12 23:39 | Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $121.81 |
| 09-07 06:58 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $142.86 |
| 09-05 00:15 | Will Solana reach $160 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $138.86 |