romfol
0xad626197df90aba9d58399a0479e0b4fed7332ff
- Realised P&L
- $-224.44
- Volume
- $102.7k
- Markets traded
- 182
- Open portfolio
- $113.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded182
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.125 | $113.65 | −$20.59 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.52 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.431 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.07 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$106.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$312.57at 0.110Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$307.93at 0.276Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$87.64at 0.060Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?
- +$29.07at 0.520Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$28.38at 0.560Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 16:57 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.1389047313 | $43.16 |
| 09-06 16:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $36.30 |
| 09-06 16:24 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | SELL | 0.0499530964 | $28.39 |
| 09-06 16:23 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $43.50 |
| 09-06 16:23 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $39.60 |
| 09-04 12:50 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 09-04 07:47 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.27 |
| 09-04 07:44 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.0493811881 | $3.99 |
| 09-04 07:42 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999967 | $30.00 |
| 09-04 07:42 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 09-04 07:39 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.0486618005 | $4.00 |
| 08-31 11:02 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $4.00 |
| 08-25 13:37 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999966 | $34.11 |
| 08-25 13:22 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999868 | $7.82 |
| 08-25 13:21 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.038 | $8.14 |