RagnarLothbrokking
0xad5ba6c88983b4009ddb446c06b7d2c881fcc023
- Realised P&L
- $-60.16
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $5.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amir Zuccolo win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.362 | $4.81 | +$0.81 |
| Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? · No | 0.600 | 0.590 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET · Down | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET · Down | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET · Up | 0.693 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET · Up | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET · Up | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Kyle Sampson win the 2026 Prince George mayoral election? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.06at 0.230Will George Minakakis win the 2026 Milton mayoral election?
- +$15.53at 0.292Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$2.02at 0.330Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- +$0.05at 0.642Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- +$-0.05at 0.550Will Ján Danko win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:47 | Will Amir Zuccolo win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2129999855 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 18:26 | Will Amir Zuccolo win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4719997923 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 13:30 | Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 13:26 | Will Amir Zuccolo win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5589999268 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 17:43 | Will Jeff Fawcett win the 2026 Brandon mayoral election? | SELL | 0.57 | $5.14 |
| 10-27 17:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.2299999958 | $6.00 |
| 10-27 17:32 | Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election? | SELL | 0.098265423 | $6.00 |
| 10-27 17:19 | Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1799999974 | $11.00 |
| 10-27 13:15 | Will Jeff Fawcett win the 2026 Brandon mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6099999623 | $5.50 |
| 10-27 07:43 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.5346315789 | $25.39 |
| 10-27 01:43 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5489999623 | $4.00 |
| 10-27 01:31 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5469999922 | $22.00 |
| 10-27 01:29 | Will George Minakakis win the 2026 Milton mayoral election? | SELL | 0.999 | $26.05 |
| 10-25 14:39 | Will George Minakakis win the 2026 Milton mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2299999958 | $6.00 |
| 10-25 14:35 | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.57 | $6.05 |