RagnarLothbrokking
0xad5ba6c88983b4009ddb446c06b7d2c881fcc023
- Realised P&L
- $-11.69
- Volume
- $282.69
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $4.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko win the Falealili 1 by-election? · Yes | 0.304 | 0.225 | $4.66 | −$1.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.44at 0.738Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?
- +$-0.37at 0.649Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?
- +$-0.66at 0.338Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?
- +$-1.97at 0.450Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?
- +$-2.28at 0.170Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 10:26 | Will Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko win the Falealili 1 by-election? | BUY | 0.3045229966 | $6.31 |
| 09-15 10:24 | Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.70 |
| 09-15 07:30 | Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.47 |
| 09-15 03:43 | Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election? | SELL | 0.33 | $2.60 |
| 09-15 02:07 | Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election? | BUY | 0.1661048401 | $6.00 |
| 09-15 02:06 | Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 09-15 01:52 | Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election? | BUY | 0.3889999876 | $3.43 |
| 09-15 01:51 | Will Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia win the Vaimauga 3 by-election? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.46 |
| 09-14 14:45 | Will Jascha Rohr win the next Oldenburg mayoral election? | SELL | 0.1667107195 | $1.14 |
| 09-14 14:41 | Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.05 |
| 09-14 02:43 | Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | BUY | 0.3399999948 | $3.96 |
| 09-14 02:41 | Will Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia win the Vaimauga 3 by-election? | BUY | 0.1099999951 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 02:39 | Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? | SELL | 0.85 | $3.48 |
| 09-14 02:38 | Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.71 |
| 09-11 14:19 | Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election? | BUY | 0.3099999887 | $2.74 |