rghdbdfbfdbhfd
0xad541520f1823e2ccbe44f015b09016b4caa3e4e
- Realised P&L
- $-99.63
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $13.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.281 | 0.365 | $13.50 | +$3.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.24at 0.890Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
- +$13.78at 0.900US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
- +$12.29at 0.900US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
- +$8.27at 0.950Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
- +$6.15at 0.942Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 07:58 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.281 | $6.50 |
| 09-26 01:58 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 07-02 16:41 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.19 |
| 06-30 17:07 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $169.84 |
| 06-26 08:39 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.939896611 | $100.00 |
| 06-10 09:53 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY | 0.95 | $145.78 |
| 06-06 19:38 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY | 0.984 | $24.36 |
| 06-06 06:55 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.8277190173 | $143.20 |
| 05-28 07:01 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $124.02 |
| 05-28 04:11 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | SELL | 0.999 | $124.02 |
| 05-27 05:46 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $111.73 |
| 05-26 14:49 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9057925353 | $107.75 |
| 05-24 07:50 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8909999929 | $106.00 |
| 05-24 07:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL | 0.996 | $64.76 |
| 05-24 07:50 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $41.41 |