sgrrdg
0xad2d2e30b15d3cd8fe57251003cac8f75d2112dc
- Realised P&L
- $-237.12
- Volume
- $40.9k
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $17.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.640 | 0.935 | $10.23 | +$3.23 |
| China Open: Petra Marcinko vs Magdalena Frech · Petra Marcinko | 0.500 | 0.495 | $4.92 | −$0.05 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.966 | $2.46 | +$0.27 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.048 | $0.34 | −$1.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.14at 0.452Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- +$22.80at 0.394Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$13.16at 0.492Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- +$10.99at 0.582PEC Zwolle vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
- +$9.93at 0.552Spread: Tampereen Ilves (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 07:21 | China Open: Petra Marcinko vs Magdalena Frech | SELL | 0.49 | $2.06 |
| 09-29 07:13 | China Open: Petra Marcinko vs Magdalena Frech | SELL | 0.49 | $7.77 |
| 09-29 07:04 | China Open: Petra Marcinko vs Magdalena Frech | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 08-12 23:34 | Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-08-12? | BUY | 0.22 | $8.80 |
| 08-12 22:16 | Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic | BUY | 0.4199998518 | $1.36 |
| 08-12 21:41 | Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 | SELL | 0.08 | $2.73 |
| 08-12 21:40 | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 | SELL | 0.45 | $4.59 |
| 08-12 19:34 | Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.4399999847 | $15.00 |
| 08-12 17:43 | Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.4599999549 | $4.69 |
| 08-12 13:06 | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B | BUY | 0.2599999903 | $15.00 |
| 08-12 01:16 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks | BUY | 0.48 | $12.45 |
| 08-11 23:18 | New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever | BUY | 0.4299998567 | $1.44 |
| 08-11 22:57 | Set 1 Winner: Bencic vs Gauff | BUY | 0.5 | $4.80 |
| 08-11 22:46 | National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff | BUY | 0.5 | $1.86 |
| 08-11 22:45 | National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff | BUY | 0.5 | $2.35 |