0xad2D0757980A19CcA320b114D22aB69D2FEecAAA-1789150268976
0xad2d0757980a19cca320b114d22ab69d2feecaaa
- Realised P&L
- $1.37
- Volume
- $44.47
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $14.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m? · No | 0.880 | 0.955 | $4.78 | +$0.38 |
| Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? · No | 0.800 | 0.810 | $4.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m? · No | 0.910 | 0.679 | $3.40 | −$1.16 |
| Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m? · No | 0.790 | 0.505 | $2.52 | −$1.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.65at 0.738Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?
- +$0.50at 0.928Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?
- +$0.22at 0.955Will "Runner" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?