ask15
0xad1f04cd8de7d7b3130a166d191169083b916c61
- Realised P&L
- $-24.6k
- Volume
- $660.5k
- Markets traded
- 619
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded619
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.514Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22?
- +$2.7kat 0.357Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on March 15?
- +$1.2kat 0.577Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
- +$1.0kat 0.475Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on April 7?
- +$1.0kat 0.147Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 17:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.1790163934 | $38.22 |
| 09-16 17:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.3432494279 | $150.00 |
| 09-16 17:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.1703822619 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 17:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.0868809731 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 17:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 16? | BUY | 0.1908396947 | $100.00 |
| 08-22 12:36 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,350 on August 22? | BUY | 0.2209999324 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 12:36 | Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on August 22? | BUY | 0.129999975 | $4.00 |
| 08-22 12:35 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on August 22? | BUY | 0.0659999941 | $10.00 |
| 08-19 21:35 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.232 | $967.63 |
| 08-02 09:56 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 2? | BUY | 0.041 | $0.21 |
| 08-02 09:54 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on August 2? | BUY | 0.0598997518 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 09:54 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on August 2? | BUY | 0.55 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 09:54 | Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on August 2? | BUY | 0.0588695086 | $103.02 |
| 08-02 09:53 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on August 2? | BUY | 0.55 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 09:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.0202282153 | $45.00 |