158108
0xacfe2bfd96d67e1cf3bbbaae386c0296198ad62c
- Realised P&L
- $-146.71
- Volume
- $183.8k
- Markets traded
- 1,011
- Open portfolio
- $37.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,011
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.914 | 0.846 | $29.61 | −$2.38 |
| Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.966 | 0.908 | $4.54 | −$0.29 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.621 | $3.10 | −$1.70 |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.356 | 0.101 | $0.50 | −$1.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.66at 0.630Solana above $210 on November 22?
- +$52.28at 0.995Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6?
- +$50.77at 0.470Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17?
- +$47.97at 0.800Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15?
- +$34.50at 0.770Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 02:42 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of August 3 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.60 |
| 08-03 01:39 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of August 3 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 08-03 01:30 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $610 Week of August 3 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 08-03 01:26 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of August 3 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 07-28 14:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on July 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 07-28 14:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:26 | Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 07-28 14:26 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on July 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 14:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on July 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |